Tuesday, November 10
Presented by: Dan North, Chief Economist - North America, Euler Hermes
In Q2-20, the Canadian economy shrank at a stunning 39% annual rate, over four times as much as the previous record. The collapse from the COVID-19 related shutdowns sent economic output back eight years. This presentation will address the prospects for a full recovery and the risks ahead.
In March of this year, government authorities shut down the economy in an attempt to stop the spread of COVID-19. While the lockdowns proved effective, they cut a deep scar in the economy. Fortunately, aggressive fiscal stimulus by the federal government, and equally aggressive monetary policy stimulus by the Bank of Canada helped cushion the unprecedented damage.
Perhaps as a result, since the shutdowns eased, the Canadian economy has made an unexpectedly strong comeback, as more than half the jobs lost have been recovered, the real estate market has held up, and other leading indicators are showing surprising optimism. Like the rest of the global economy, Canada has a long way to go, but among the developed economies, it has one of the very best recoveries so far.
Two major risks to the expected continued improvement would be a resurgence here in Canada of COVID-19 like we are witnessing across the in Europe, and a slowdown in the US recovery. The presentation will address prospects for economic growth as well as the likelihood of a sharp increase in business insolvencies.
Dan North, Chief Economist - North America, Euler Hermes
Dan North has been with Euler Hermes North America since 1996, using macroeconomic and quantitative analyses to help manage Euler’s risk portfolio of more than $150 billion in annual U.S. trade transactions. As an economist he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business News, France 24, The Street, and Bloomberg Radio and Television. He has been quoted by Barron’s, Business Week, Paris Le Monde, Tokyo Nikkei, the BBC, the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. After having predicted the 2008/2009 recession and its implications accurately, he was ranked 4th on Bloomberg’s list of the 65 top economic forecasters in 2010.