Presenter: Dan North, Chief Economist - North America, Euler Hermes
Air Date: April 8, 2020
CMUs: Certified CITT members earn 5 CMUs for their first viewing of this webinar (live or recorded).
The Outlook for the North American Economy
As 2019 came to a close, it appeared that the US economy was in reasonably good condition. However under the surface it was actually rather fragile, having developed a number of flaws which suggested a downturn in the first half of 2020. When the coronavirus came along, it was more than enough to send that downturn into a sharp recession. Clearly the economy will suffer significant damage as the government has required many businesses to shut down. However, the good news is that government will also allow businesses to open back, spurring a “U-shaped” recovery later in 2020. The presentation will examine consumer behavior, manufacturing, housing and the government responses to manage the crisis as we develop our forecast for the rest of the year.
Canada had already experienced slow growth in 2019 as consumption softened, trade concerns damaged manufacturing and capital expenditures, and the Bank of Canada had kept monetary policy too tight. While those issues will continue to weigh on the Canadian economy, it now also faces dramatic new pressures from a global slowdown, collapsing oil prices, and an outright recession in its largest trading partner, the US. The presentation will investigate critical aspects of the Canadian economy and its likely trajectory out of recession.
Dan North, Chief Economist - North America, Euler Hermes
Dan North has been with Euler Hermes North America since 1996, using macroeconomic and quantitative analyses to help manage Euler’s risk portfolio of more than $150 billion in annual U.S. trade transactions. As an economist he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business News, France 24, The Street, and Bloomberg Radio and Television. He has been quoted by Barron’s, Business Week, Paris Le Monde, Tokyo Nikkei, the BBC, the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. After having predicted the 2008/2009 recession and its implications accurately, he was ranked 4th on Bloomberg’s list of the 65 top economic forecasters in 2010.
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