Supply Chain Scanner - Week of August 26, 2024

Weekly blog by Emily Atkins

We will still have a labour shortage in 2030, the question is how big will it be? 

By 2030 there could be a shortage of 40,000 trucking and logistics workers in Canada. That’s according to Trucking HR Canada’s (THRC) latest labour market survey. 

That’s a pretty shocking number, but there is a more optimistic outlook as well. The survey also found that under a best-case scenario, the number of vacancies would be only 10,300 in the sector. 

Either way, though, labour shortages in our sector can have serious consequences that range from increased costs to decreased supply chain efficiency. This underlines the importance of taking action to fill the gap between labour availability and demand. 

In the immediate term, there is good news. In its first quarter 2024 Labour Market Information (LMI) snapshot, Trucking HR Canada found that the total supply of labour (both employed and unemployed) increased steadily through 2023 and into 2024, topping 807,000 in the first quarter. This is an eight percent increase from Q1 2023, with the addition of almost 60,000 participants to the sector’s labour supply. “The latest report shows growth in our sector’s labour supply as the number of active job seekers jumped sharply in the first quarter of 2024,” said Craig Faucette, chief program officer, Trucking HR Canada. “This is good news for employers who are looking to hire and train additional workers for unfilled positions.”

But what will keep up the momentum so that it’s the optimistic scenario, not the dire one that we will see in the industry in 2030? According to THRC, existing programs and initiatives really do shift the needle when it comes to filling jobs in the sector. 

THRC found that companies are turning to immigration sponsorship programs such as the Government of Canada’s Express Entry program or provincial nominee program (53%), the temporary foreign worker program (40%) and Trucking HR Canada’s own Career Expressway (37%) to help them address their most urgent labour market challenges.

“Workforce investments and HR best practices are working. They have driven industry recruitment performance to new heights with significantly more women, youth and immigrants joining our sector,” said Angela Splinter, CEO of THRC. 

“However, workforce demand continues to outpace supply, with a strong capacity being our nation’s first line of defence against supply chain disruptions. Continued investments can be made with confidence – programs and resources are making a difference for businesses in every sector of Canada’s economy and for Canadians”.

The issues those programs need to address include recruiting and retaining diverse groups, such as women and younger people, to the sector, which has historically had an aging and predominantly male workforce. And progress is clearly being made.

Youth (under the age of 25) employed in trucking and logistics increased to 10 percent in 2021 — the sector employed 34,185 more youth than in 2016. In just five years, the number of youth drivers almost doubled — accounting for 18,690 people behind the wheel and 25 percent of trucking and logistics workers. Over the same period, the number of people under 25 in the Canadian workforce decreased by eight percent.

As well, there were 26,235 more women in trucking and logistics, up 27 percent in 2021 over 2016 (from 97,135 to 123,370). During this same period, the proportion of women in the overall Canadian workforce remained unchanged, at 48 percent. 

THRC also suggests that employers can tap into other groups by “creating inclusive and accommodating workplaces and actively engaging diverse communities, including Indigenous people, immigrants, non-permanent residents, people with disabilities and visible minorities.”

Census data shows that the trucking and logistics sector employed the same proportion of Indigenous people in 2016 as in 2021 (four percent). This reflects the representation of Indigenous people across the Canadian workforce. The proportion of immigrants employed in the industry increased from 26 to 30 percent during the same period, the share of non-permanent residents was up to five percent from one percent, and visible minorities’ representation increased from 23 to 30 percent. 

But, as THRC said in its report, “the work isn’t done. Failing to address persistent labour shortages in trucking and logistics could seriously affect the rest of the Canadian economy.”  The answer, it argues, is to continue to fund existing programs such as those mentioned above, and to continue developing new ones. 

Where do you stand on this issue? Is labour a concern for your business? Who should fund these programs, industry or government? 

Join the conversation on Canada’s Logistics Community forum!

Emily Atkins
President
Emily Atkins Group

 

Emily Atkins is president of Emily Atkins Group and was editor of Inside Logistics from 2002 to 2024. She has lived and worked around the world as a journalist and writer for hire, with experience in several sectors besides supply chain, including automotive, insurance and waste management. Based in Southern Ontario, when she’s not researching or writing a story she can be found on her bike, in a kayak, singing in the band or at the wheel of her race car. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/emilyatkinsgroup/